The 2017 French presidential elections are taking place during a period of extreme international and local tension. One barometer to measure this tension is the Doomsday clock.
The Doomsday Clock
According to a group of respected academics including physicists and environmental scientists, in consultation with a board of sponsors comprising 15 Nobel prize winners, the world is close to apocalypse. The minute hand of the symbolic Doomsday Clock, a metaphor for how vulnerable the world is to catastrophe, was this year moved to two and a half minutes to midnight, the closest it has been since 1953, the year the US first tested the hydrogen bomb.
The clock was created in 1945 by a group of scientists at the University of Chicago who had helped develop the first atomic weapons. Today, the clock is adjusted by a respected group of international academics. During much of the cold War, the minute hand hovered between 4 and 2 minutes to midnight but in the 90’s it spent much of its time around the quarter to mark. Why is the world now judged to be in such grave danger?
Why so close to midnight?
Concerns over existential threats from nuclear weapons and climate change are the Doomsday Clock scientist’s major concerns. Russia and the US are modernising their nuclear arsenal and North Korea are continuing their underground testing. The Paris climate change accord was hailed a landmark achievement, but it did not affect carbon dioxide emissions during 2016 and the election of climate change sceptic Donald Trump suggests the US will be revoking any commitments to limit emissions.
There has been an alarming surge in nationalism in the West. This is highlighted by Donald Trump’s executive order 13769 that attempted to block entry into the US for people from seven countries, a staggering 217 million people; the United Kingdom’s vote to leave the European Union and the rise in popularity of far right political figures in Europe, such as Hungary’s staunchly anti-immigration Prime Minister, Victor Orban, the Netherlands’ Geert Wilders, and France’s Marine Le Pen. International solutions to our international problems will likely be harder to find in the years ahead.
France on the international stage
France is a powerful country with significant influence on international affairs. It is a permanent member of the UN security council, giving it a veto on UN resolutions. It has an important diplomatic role within the European Union, as shown by Hollande’s presence alongside Merkel in peace talks between Russia and Ukraine. It is the second largest economy in the Eurozone and the world’s tenth largest economy in terms of GDP. France combines impressive commercial leverage with diplomatic influence, all backed up by a powerful military with nuclear capabilities, recently ranked the sixth strongest in the world by the Business Insider.
Given the precarious international situation and France’s power to influence international affairs, the choice taken by the French electorate in the 2017 Presidential elections could have extremely serious ramifications for the entire world.
France – Political landscape
France is a country with a lot going for it. According to the organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), France has “an enviable standard of living…inequality is not excessive and the country has come through the [financial] crisis without suffering too heavily”. France also tops the UN world tourism rankings, averaging 84 million visitors a year, showing its qualities are appreciated by people the world over. But the French are dissatisfied, particularly with the state of their political landscape and the general sentiment is that things need to change. What is wrong chez les français and what change will they be voting for in the Presidential elections in April?
The French have a deep mistrust of politicians, which has been stoked by a series of corruption scandals. In 2011, former French President Jacques Chirac was found guilty of embezzling public funds while he was mayor of Paris. Another former President, Nicolas Sarkozy is facing trial over illegal campaign funding in 2012. In France, campaign spending is limited to 22.5 million euros and it is alleged the PR firm Bygmalian provided a series of false invoices for Sarkozy’s UMP party enabling them to spend well over the limit. In 2014 he became the first former French head of state to be held in police custody as he was formerly placed under investigation for allegedly trying to bribe a senior judge for information relating to a case against him. In 2012, he was charged with accepting 50 million euros in illegal campaign financing from the late Libyan dictator Muammar Gaddafi, something Sarkozy strongly denies. Centre right presidential candidate Francois Fillon was favourite to win the 2017 elections, but he is now facing a full judicial enquiry into abuse of public funds. He is accused of paying his wife, Penelope Fillon in excess of 831 400 euros for work as his parliamentary assistant, work that she allegedly never carried out. The case is reminiscent of the 2009 UK parliamentary expenses scandal and opinion polls suggest the one-time favourite for the presidency is highly unlikely to reach the second round run-off on 7 May.
The French are also angry about the state of their economy. The most worrying statistic concerns unemployment. About 3 million people are unemployed in France, around 10 % of the workforce. This compares with figures of around 4 % in Germany and Britain and is the second highest in the G7 of leading developed nations. Francois Hollande repeatedly promised a significant and credible decline in unemployment and his inability to create jobs is another factor in the French public’s lack of confidence in the French political elite. Employment is a sensitive issue in France, as shown by the strikes in response to the El Khomri law, adopted in August 2016, which revised labour laws. Employment will be an important issue for voters in these elections.
France – Islamophobia
France has an uncomfortable history with the Muslim community. Historically, Muslims came to France following France’s invasion and colonisation of North Africa and many French Muslims have roots in Algeria, Tunisia and Morocco. Today, there are around 5 million Muslims living in France, the largest Muslim population in Europe. However, French society is systematically islamophobic. Muslims are concentrated in the “banlieues”, often nothing more than rundown concrete jungles made up of decrepit tower blocks situated on the periphery of French cities. A study by two Stanford University professors, David Laitin and Claire Adida, and a colleague at the Sorbonne University, Marie-Anne Valfort showed that Muslims sending out identical CVs had two and a half times less chance than Christians of being invited to interview. A separate study found that Muslims in France made on average 400 euros less than their Christian counterparts. Marine Le Pen’s far-right, ultra nationalist and anti-immigration political party, le Front National is expected to win the first round of voting in the Presidential elections showing that for many in France, immigrants are not welcome.
Tensions have deepened since attacks in January 2015 on the satirical newspaper Charlie Hebdo. The shootings, carried out by two French Muslim brothers as revenge for jokes about Muhammed which appeared in the Newspaper killed 12 and injured 11. Further attacks took place in Paris on the 13-14 November 2015 when gunmen and suicide bombers attacked civilians leaving 130 people dead and hundreds wounded. Islamic State (IS) released a statement claiming responsibility for the attacks which were a response to France’s involvement in the air strikes on IS militants in Syria and Iraq. Hollande said that “France had been attacked in a cowardly and shameful way” and described the attacks as an “act of war”. He said that “France will be merciless in its response to Islamic State militants” and will “use all means within the law…on every battleground here and abroad together with our allies”. Since these attacks, talk of “terrorism” has reached fever pitch in the media and in political rhetoric. It will surely influence voting in these presidential elections, one way or another.
France and the European Union
In 1957 France was one of six core states to found the European Economic Community, which with the signing of the Maastricht Treaty in 1992, would become known as the European Union (EU). France has played an important role in the development of the EU and houses one of the three European parliament buildings in Strasbourg.
In recent times however, the French public opinion of the EU has become increasingly negative. At the time of the United Kingdom’s referendum on continued EU membership, polling by US think tank, Pew Research Centre, found 61 % in France held an unfavourable view of the EU, compared to just 48 % in the UK. The Eurozone debt crisis, where Germany and France struggled to support Greece, Italy, Portugal, Ireland and Spain from defaulting on loans left many questioning the merits of the single currency. The European migrant and refugee crisis increased anti EU sentiment further. In 2015, more than a million migrants and refugees, the vast majority fleeing war in Syria, crossed into Europe. A large percentage have sought asylum in Germany but there is widespread concern over the freedom of movement rules which allow undocumented migrants to cross freely across borders in the Schengen area. These concerns were heightened when it was revealed that one of the November 2015 Paris attackers, Ahmad al-Mohammad, was believed to have entered the EU with migrants at the Greek island Leros using a fake Syrian passport.
When more than 100 women were assaulted during New Year’s Eve celebrations in Germany, many of the identified suspects were migrants from Morocco and Algeria. Many in the EU criticised Angela Merkel’s “open door” refugee policy and some have claimed that the customs and cultures of many Muslim countries are not compatible with those of Europe. The controversial ban on the “burkini” that was introduced in France last summer (before being overturned by the French law courts) is an example of the extent to which some in France are uncomfortable with multiculturalism.
The two frontrunners for the presidency, Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen have diametrically opposed opinions regarding France’s ongoing membership of the EU. In some senses, voters will be deciding between Macron’s vision of sustained French involvement within a strong EU and Le Pen, who promises to be “Madame Frexit” if France is not given back “monetary, legislative, territorial and budgetary sovereignty”.
What’s at stake?
The 2017 French presidential elections are taking place during a period of instability on national, European and global stages. On a national level, high profile cases of corruption, as well as stagnant employment levels, have left trust in the integrity and competence of politicians at an all-time low. On a European level, the EU has been weakened by the Eurozone debt crisis, the refugee crisis and the decision by the UK, one of its most powerful members, to leave. On an international level, increased nationalism and concerns over nuclear arms proliferation and climate change are genuine existential threats.
France is a rich and powerful country. It has the choice to accept refugees or to reject them. It has the choice to promote peace within the United Nations or to use its powerful military to bombard other countries. It has the choice to unite the remaining nations in the EU or to leave. It has the choice to fight for cooperation between nations or to concern itself only with what happens in France. It has the choice to fight for a reduction in nuclear weapons, and as a nuclear power to set a precedent, or to ignore the risks of nuclear proliferation. It has the choice to fight for measures to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases or to concern itself solely with economic issues with regards to the energy sector. Despite the protestations of many in France who claim there is no choice in French politics, the candidates standing in the Presidential elections in April represent very different choices for the French, choices that will have ramifications far beyond their country.
Jon Osler
References
Image: Atomic bomb explosion (Creative commons)
1) The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, It is two and a half minutes to midnight, 2017
2) Business Insider UK, The 25 most powerful militaries in the world, 2015
3) BBC News, What is the French economic problem, 2016
4) UN World Tourism Organisation, Tourism highlights, 2016
5) The Guardian, Jacques Chirac found guilty of corruption, 2011
6) The Independent, Nicolas Sarkozy corruption trial: France’s highest court clears way for proceedings against former President, 2016
7) The Telegraph, Nicolas Sarkozy charged with corruption, 2014
8) BBC News, Nicolas Sarkozy: A patchwork of ex-president’s legal woes, 2017
9) Liberation, Loi El Khomri : à trois pour un dernier bras de fer, 2016
10) Stanford News, Stanford study shows Muslim job discrimination in France, 2010
11) Éditions Albin Michel, Qu’Allah Bénisse La France, Abd Al Malik, 2014
12) Éditions du Seuil, Le racisme expliqué à ma fille, Tahar Ben Jelloun, 2009
13) Les Éditeurs Jeunesse Avec Les Réfugiés, Eux, c’est nous, 2015
14) Pew Research Center, Euroskepticism beyond Brexit, 2016
15) Le Monde, Que disent les sondages de la présidentielle, 2017
16) The Telegraph, Who is Salah Abdeslam and who were the Paris terrorists? Everything we know about the Isil attackers, 2016